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WP5 - Market analysis


Eva Roth, Associate Professor, Department of Environmental and Business Economics, SDU, Esbjerg


The group is responsible for carrying out part of the socio-economic research of the project. The aim falls within 3 integrated studies:

1.  Market analyses, what are the market structure, consumer preference and demand in the EU for blue mussel?

2.  Ascertain mussel farmer’s risk perception and risk management strategies.

3.  Model the real economic risk of HAPs, E-coli and oxygen depletion incidents for mussel aquaculture (in cooperation with the SPICOSA project).

Scientific personnel

  • Associate Professor Eva Roth.
  • Professor Hans Stubbe Solgaard
  • PhD student Dewan Ali Ahsan
  • PhD student  Thong Tien Nguyen
  • Post.Doc, PhD Lars Ravn Jonsen

Past activities (Jan 2008 – Mar 2012)

Progress in risk research. A questionnaire survey has been conducted (Dewan Ahsan, Eva Roth) to analyze the risk perception and the risk management strategies of the farmer. The survey was carried out in October-November period, 2008. In the questionnaire we included 24 risk sources of mussel farming and 24 different types of management strategies which can reduce the risk in mussel farming. The response rate is high as we covered 72% of sample (13 out of 18) though the number sample is small. The results are presently being analyzed and an article has been submitted to a peer reviewed journal, and another paper has been accepted and presented at a conference in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The results have been published late 2010 in Marine Resource Economics.

Progress in bio-economic production modelling. We are have formulated the mathematical model and establishing the data input for the production model (which will also provide the scientific risk in the industry) but has found it more laborious than expected. The conceptual model has been formulated in collaboration with SPICOSA (Science and Policy Integration for Coastal system Assessment) project and the model is still in developing stage, although we succeeded in getting the model to run, validated through hind casting and actually get very interesting results from the different scenarios introduced in the model.. By this model, we are trying to explain the real risk of E. coli, HABs and oxygen depletion events in the mussel industry. In future, the model will also incorporate the marketing risk analysis part as well. (Karen Timmermann and Stiig Markager, DMU and Grete Dinesen, DTU-Aqua in cooperation with Eva Roth, Lars Ravn Jonsen and Dewan Ahsan, IME, SDU). The basic model is still being worked on. The empirical data have been introduced,  and as SPICOSA is almost a finished project the input from the MarBioShell has been utilized in the following publications and posters:

Past activities (Jan 2008 - Mar 2012)

The activities of the working package including four research activities:

February 2009-December 2009:

  • Nguyen Tien Thong (PhD student) conducted interview with mussel producers and scientists in Limfjord area and DTU about the mussels production and market.
  • Nguyen Tien Thong travelled to the Netherland for investigating the auction market activities, discussing with consultant and producers about mussels markets and productions, and collecting data.
  • Analysing secondary data to investigate the consumer preference for mussels characteristics.


  • Collecting data of mussel production in European countries.
  • Writing articles on implicit price of mussels in auction market.
  • Constructing model of consumer demand for mussel in European countries.
  • Visiting French markets, presenting research results in conference, and group interview of consumers about mussels consumption.
  • Preparing questionnaire and choice experiments for seafood consumption study.


  • Collecting data on seafood consumption in French markets to investigate the consumer preference and demand for mussel at individual level.
  • Analysing data and writing articles.

Ongoing activities (Mar-Dec 2012)

  • Summary the results, submit to the committee (PhD school, SDU), and distribute to the public.
  • A Danish language dissemination of results is planned.
  • Risk perception and risk management. The results are planned disseminated further through a Danish article.
  • Bio-economic model (in collaboration with SPICOSA). The work is still in progress and one article is presently in preparation within the broader team of collaboration.
  • Progress in the marketing study. The marketing study is included in a much larger PhD-project investigating consumer preferences and demand for blue mussels in European markets. The project investigated the consumer preference and demand for blue mussels at two different levels: wholesale market level and consumer individual level. The project in general has been carried out on time and completed and Thong plans to submit his PhD dissertation in May 2012


Scientific articles (peer reviewed)

Ahsan, Dewan; Roth, Eva (2010). Farmers' risk perception and risk management strategies in an emerging mussel aquaculture industry in Denmark. /. I : Marine Resource Economics . 2010; Vol. 25, No. 3.

Thong NT (2011). Implicit price of mussels characteristics in auction market. Journal of Aquaculture International (doi: 10.1007/s10499-011-9489-x).

Dinesen GE, Timmermann K, Roth E, Markager S, Ravn-Jonsen L, Hjorth M, Holmer M, Støttrup JG. (2012) Mussel production and WFD targets in the Limfjord, Denmark: an integrated assessment for use in system-based management. Ecology & Society (submitted)

Thong NT (2012). An inverse demand system for mussels in EU. Marine Resource Economics 27(2): (in press)

Thong NT, Wolfgang H, Solgaard HS, Roth E (2012). Demand structure and segmentation of seafood: stated choice approach. (in prep.)

Thong NT, Wolfgang H, Solgaard HS, Roth E, Lars RJ (2012). Valuing seafood attributes: Stated choice model. (in prep.)

Non-peer reviewed

Støttrup JG, Dinesen GE, Timmermann K, Markager S, Roth E, Ravn-Jonsen L. 2010. Integrated assessment for use in system based management: WFD nutrient targets and mussel production in the Limfjord, Denmark. ICES CM2010/B:09: 1-14. [Printed online September 2010]


Dinesen GE, Ahsan D, Dolmer P, Holmer, Hjort M, Jarlbæk H, Hoffman E, Markager S, Roth E, Sverdrup-Jensen S, Petersen JK, Timmermann K, Støttrup JG. 2010. The Limfjord, Denmark. SPICOSA study site 5. [Presented at the SPICOSA SAF meeting, Istanbul 2010]

Dinesen GE, Timmermann K, Markager S, Roth E, Ravn-Jonsen L, Hjort M, Petersen JK, Holmer, M, Støttrup JG. 2010. The Limfjord, Denmark. SPICOSA study site 5. [Presented at the Littoral Conference, London 2010]

Dinesen GE, Timmermann K, Markager S, Roth E, Ravn-Jonsen L, Hjort M, Holmer M, Støttrup JG. 2010. The Limfjord, Denmark. SPICOSA study site 5. [Presented at the SPICOSA SAF meeting, Malta 2010]

PhD dissertation

Ahsan Dewan (2011) Risk perception and Risk Management Strategies among Aquaculture Farmers. Southern Denmark University, 28th November 2011.